Saturday, December 02, 2006

Spain - Doomed

Iwondered why Spaniards, long famed for their fighting spirit, caved in so completely to the Madrid train bombs. I hadn't realised the extent of the Spanish cultural collapse, which makes Britain's look like a little local difficulty.

This pollyanna-ish Times article by Thomas Catan :

In the dark heart of machismo shines a beacon of sexual equality. In 30 years Spanish women have gone from being mere chattels to the most liberated in Europe.

Is best interpreted in the light of these amazing demography statistics. Hit 'submit all' for the full horror. The Spanish have stopped breeding.

In 1975 the average senora had 2.8 babies - well above the 2.1 replacement rate. But that rate was passed in 1981, and is currently at 1.3, having been as low as 1.1 only a few years ago. You have to wonder who's responsible for the slight recent increase - Spaniards ?

Lets do the maths on a 40m population, who have all their children at 30. 50/50 sex split.

30 years - they've had 26m children. Another 30 - those 26m have had 16.9m. You've more than halved the population in 2 generations.

The excellent site however shows the population actually rising from 42 to 52 million by 2060. Based on ?

"The first situation considered is that the number of new arrivals of foreigners in Spain will evolve according to the most recent trend until the year 2010, after which they remain constant. The total number of arrivals in Spain during the period 2007-2059 increases to 14.6 million persons."

14.6 million high-fertility arrivals, by the look of it. These aren't Brit retirees. And that's assuming that arrivals stay constant after 2010. Looks like the Alhambra and Generalife might be returning to the previous owners.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Spain is supposedly already iniltrated by Rumanians and with Senegal and Morocco sending surplus to Spain it should soon have a Kahlua mix to its population

Dangerouslysubversivedad said...

Well it wasnt all that long ago some nutty cleric in Saudi called on the Spanish to give back Almohad spain ASAP or else. Looks like they've opted for slow death by demographic suicide. Me, I'm getting the future Mrs Right-Wing Zionist Conspirator pregnant within hours of getting married. I'll outbreed the bastards yet.

Dave said...

Don't forget any of these 'Spaniards' as EU citizens have an automatic right to enter the UK, so its not just a spanish issue.

It should not be possible to have a joint freedom of movement policy without also having a joint immigration policy.

Anonymous said...

I feel I embody this tragedy. I've got not kids and never will have any. Tough shit, I know. When I was growing up the basic idea was that there were too many children in the world. I didn't want to be poor with kids like my ancestors. I never got well off, more tough shit again. I watched a lot of kitchen sink dramas where working class people had shit lives - Boys from the blackstuff stands out. It was in someone's interest to make me feel shit about normal life. Funny thing was my ancestors weren't that miserable -we didn't feel like outsiders. Fucking stupidity. Who to blame? mmm Answers on one side of A4 please.

Dave said...

anon, still happening now, a while ago there was a topic on bbc "have your say" about global warming, apparently the root cause is overpopulation and a lot of comments were complaining about people 'irresponsibly' having children.

Anonymous said...

At school in the 70s I remember our lovely leftie teachers telling us over and over again that there were too many people in the world. They made us feel as though it was down to us kids to stop the over-population of the world. Of course, what the smug bastards didn't tell us was that the only people who would stop breeding were us idiots in the West (i.e the ones who could actually support a rising population) and that the Third World would carry on having seven or eight children each and that the surplus would end up over here and breed us into minority status in our own country.

Anonymous said...

IF people have stopped breeding all over Europe, surely the answer lies in what has changed in Europe over the last 40 years.
The humn race is certainly not becoming infertile.
But today a young couple have to run like mad simply to stand still.
Only the wealthy can afford to give birth outside the cocoon of state assistance.
Every penny is extracted from the underclass by taxation and most have to each work twelve hours a day to pay a mortgage on hovels which have been priced out of reach by the speculators and the banks. Then they have to run the gauntlet of city crime as well.
The price of every day commodities have made it impossible to save for a family let alone a pension.
The underclass that has been created is prone to follow any extreme leader who will promise to lead them out of this terrible mess.
Instead of trying to deal with the terrible state of the underclasses who can no longer afford to reproduce, the elites prefer to import more slave workers to make up the required numbers.
What folly!

Anonymous said...

Ill think you will find the underclass have little trouble breeding. Its the tax paying working/middle classes who cant afford children. Not helped by the pressure on housing, schools, transport system etc Still there are all those deserving immigrants to be catered for and theyve just as much right to those resources as you and dont you forget it.

Dave said...

I think the idea of the English underclass having a high birth-rate is an exaggerated by the media complaining about youths on benefits. Yes there are some cases but as a general trend the stats don't bare it out.

dave fordwych said...

"You have to wonder who's responsible for the recent slight increase"

I suppose the geography is a bit of a clue.

All the lowest ranking provinces are either in the north or in the interior.The southern provinces started to uptick around 1995 with a bit of an acceleration after 2001 for some reason.

Dave said...

Its actually worse than the stats show.
Even if two groups of people have the same birth-rate of for example 2 per woman, the group that has those children younger will out breed those waiting until they are 40.

A group that averages 2 babies per woman by the time they are 20 years old will have produced 4 babies in 40 years because her daughter will have started having babies.
A group whos women wait until they are around 40 years old before having 2 babies will only have 2, ofcourse.


So its not just that 'white' Western women don't have many children they also leave a generational gap that is equally damaging to demographics.
Those two things combined mean our country could be 'tranformed' very very much faster than most people think.

Anonymous said...

I'm the the first anonymous -without the kids. I'd just like to point out that I'm not 'underclass' though I am poor, due to unwisely NOT working flat out non stop for 20 years without any unemployment or ill health. BA Hons, MSc, LRSM, I read latin and greek. Frankly I blame the failure to breed on materialism and selfishness - in my own case - not wanting to be 'poor', and leftist bohemianism. Bloody Bob Dylan and his lot. (Oh well I 'm having fun here.) How poor is dying out? I've turned catholic recently, and noticed my co religionists are great people who have massive families (like 7) and big dirty scruffy houses, like mine, cept its small, and don't have big shiny cars. I would recommend religion but we don't really do that.

I remember a rather strange moment among others when I was a teacher. I'd always had trouble with the more loutish kids - frankly didn't like em , and I've taught in prisons (more stories). This one day I was contemplating the collapse of western civilisation as you do and suddenly I saw them all in a transformed light -a positive one. It was bloody wierd, I thought - 'they're not going to turn islamic and they like fighting ....' Suddenly I was chatting, real friendly like. Hitler youth or what? Steady on!

Laban said...

Anon 'they're not going to turn islamic'

- they may surprise you. Nature abhors a spiritual vacuum.

R said...

Laban,
This post is very old, but since you're linking to it now on the Guardian, I must comment on the first sentence. It is a completely incorrect, but not uncommon, impression that Spain "caved in completely to the Madrid train bombs" of 2004. What actually happened was that the bombs planted by Islamist terrorists, 3 days before a general election, were immediately jumped on by Jose Maria Aznar's PP government as an election winner, and Aznar personally contacted all newspapers and media to say that they knew that the Basque terrorists, ETA, did it. This lie fortunately crumbled over the next 3 days, underscoring in the most dramatic fashion the disdainful arrogance of the Aznar government towards the Spanish electorate, causing many otherwise apathetic voters to go to the polls, and although surveys had shown Socialist support had been rising before the bomb, the events of those 3 days may have sealed it, and the socialists won. Yes - one of the Socialist policies was to get Spain out of Iraq, which they naturally did, since that was favoured by over 80% of Spaniards anyway - and going tinot Iraq had been yet another example of Aznar's supreme arrogance.