Some weird and wonderful council by-elections.
Analysis of 14 comparable results over November suggests a projected 21.6% Tory lead over Labour.
A calculation based on 10 contests where all three major parties fought both times suggests a line-up of: Con 43%, Lib Dem 27.7%, Lab 23.2%.
Hmmm. But these seats aren't representative. What intrigued me was :
Skegness St Clements: - UKIP vote stopped the Tories winning from Labour - assuming UKIP vote is ex-Tory.
Newcastle-upon-Tyne - Lemington: - BNP vote stopped Labour winning from Lib Dems - assuming BNP are ex-Labour.
The collapse of the Labour vote in Maidstone and Northway. And the general volatility.
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