Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Help Wanted ...

By Sam Tarran :

I've just been assigned a report on the economic performance of Germany based upon the indicators of unemployment, inflation, balance of payments, and GDP over the last thirty years, to be submitted in three weeks.

Any advice? Pointers? Little snippets of information?

Any ideas out there ? I've no idea if you can get OECD stuff going back 30 years.






UPDATE - and while we're talking economics, pro-immigration and anti-British zealot (but learned economist) Willem Buiter agrees with Laban that the high street banks should all be nationalised. Alas he's forgotten the bit about putting their directors on trial and confiscating their assets, before repeating the process with the accountancy firms who signed off the accounts since, say, 2002. He's nearly as pessimistic as Ambrose Evans Pritchard :

In the name of preventing a collapse of the UK banking system, we are witnessing the socialisation - at first gradual, but now quite rapid - of all balance sheet risk of the UK banks by the UK government. This is risky and, in my view, unwise. The manner in which it is done also seems designed to maximise moral hazard ...

But even if the UK is not the next European country to face a sovereign debt challenge, there is a non-negligible risk that before too long, the growing exposure of the British sovereign to the banking system (and especially to the foreign currency funding risk faced by the UK banking system), together with the 9 and 10 per cent of GDP general government fiscal deficits expected for the next couple of years, may prompt a loss of confidence by the global financial community in the British banks, currency and sovereign.

We may well witness the UK authorities going cap-in-hand to the IMF, the EU, the ECB and the fiscally super-solvent EU member states (if there are any left), prompted by a triple crisis (banking, sterling and sovereign debt), to request a bail out. I hope and trust that the UK authorities are in regular contact with the IMF, the US administration, Brussels, Frankfurt and the leading EU member countries to prepare for a possible internationally coordinated bail-out operation for the British banking system and sovereign.

He seems to think the Great British Pound may go the way of the Great Icelandic Krone. The Krone halved against most foreign currencies, I believe - whereas sterling's only halved against the Yen and lost a third against most other currencies.

Not actually that far to go then. Let us see what the dawn will bring !

4 comments:

staybryte said...

Buiter?

Where's Sgt Troy when you need him?

Anonymous said...

Starting a blog of his own, its about time.

come on Sarge, where are you?

Anonymous said...

Busy trying on that camisole and new pair of heels he promised himself for Christmas.

Anonymous said...

But he said he liked the ones I got him, ooh the two faced tart!